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Financial Planning, Forecasting and Risk Modelling using Oracle Crystal Ball

Introduction

Course Overview
The management of finance demands taking decisions that involve risk. Risk prevails when there are chances that uncertain events may occur and that might negatively impact your expected result, outcome or benefit. Financial managers make financial plans based on forecasts or assumptions. However, forecasts are predictions and assumptions are just guesses. So there are many possibilities that predictions and guesses will go wrong. And as a result financial plan made would no more be a valuable guide to lead the business.

This course will teach you how to recognize risk by measuring the degree which forecast may vary and allowing assumptions to fluctuate and to incorporate recognition of risk in your financial plan.

Key learning outcomes of this course are –
1. Be aware of various financial problems and scope of risk analysis and modelling in finance;

2. Improve your knowledge about probability, spreadsheet and risk modelling software;

3. Gain expertises on various Crystal ball tools and techniques;

4. Incorporate risk modelling in Business plan;

5. Develop portfolio and devise portfolio risk management plan;

6. Develop knowledge on advance financial risk management techniques.

Methodology

The programme will be delivered using formal lectures combined with practical and interactive case studies and exercises. There will be a great emphasis on gaining practical experiences..

Contents of Training:

Session 1: Financial problems and scope of Risk Modelling
In this session you’ll be introduced with various financial problems that need incorporation of risk management techniques. You’ll have a brief idea about risk analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation which is the methodology used by crystal ball.

Session 2: Introduction to Probability Distributions and Crystal Ball
Developing stochastic financial models is one the key objectives of this course. Probability distributions are foundations of stochastic models. In this session you’ll develop precision knowledge probability distributions and explore how Crystal Ball analyse risk using probability distributions. At the end of this session you’ll be able to develop simple financial models using Crystal Ball.

Session 3: Crystal Ball Tools and Techniques
There are many tools in Crystal Ball that help you understanding your data series and let you choose right probability distributions for your assumptions. In this session you will have preview of all different tools that you’ll be using in next three sessions.

Session 4: Risk Modelling in your Business Plan
In this session, you will develop practical expertise on how to associate risk in your business plan. You’ll learn how to analyse risk in your demand forecast and investigate the financial viability of the business project by using NPV, IRR and Payback Period Models.

Session 5: Risk Modelling in your Stock Portfolio Plan
Developing multi-stock portfolio and calculating its risk using spreadsheet is a daunting task to the professionals working in financial investment sector. In this session you’ll learn how to develop portfolio and calculate its risk and return using covariance matrix and other array formulas. You will also learn how to develop risk model for your portfolio.

Session 6: Advanced Financial Risk Management
There are many other areas of finance where you’ll need to use Crystal Ball later in your professional career. These areas are financial time series, derivatives, options, financial statement analysis etc. In this last session, you’ll have an overview of all these areas and will be guided how to be a successful financial risk manager with the knowledge you achieved in this course.

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Professionals working in finance sector.